Jamaica’s ‘Reggae Girlz’ are becoming accustomed to making history.

The team secured the country’s first ever Women’s World Cup point against France and then went one better by earning a first ever victory with a narrow 1-0 win over Panama.

If the team is to add another historic achievement to its resumé and reach the knockout stages of a World Cup – men’s or women’s – for the first time, it will need to avoid defeat against Brazil.

The team knows just a draw will be enough to progress to the round of 16 and will be boosted by the return of star striker Khadija Shaw, who was suspended for the win over Panama after picking up a late red card in the team’s opener.

Brazil, currently a point behind Jamaica, knows only a victory will suffice – As Canarinhas can technically still progress with a draw, but would simultaneously require the extraordinarily unlikely scenario of a Panama victory over France.

Brazil legend Marta, considered by most to be the greatest female footballer of all time, has only been used as a second-half substitute so far in Australia and New Zealand and it’s likely she will continue in that role moving forward.

Ary Borges, who scored a hat-trick for Brazil against Panama, is just one of a number of talented youngsters coming through the ranks that are tasked with a least partially filling Marta’s sizable shoes.

The 37-year-old is playing in her sixth and final World Cup and a major title with Brazil is the only accomplishment missing from her glittering career.

In Group F’s other match, France can secure top spot with a victory over already eliminated Panama.

Group G

Sweden is already through to the last 16 and only needs a draw against Argentina to guarantee top spot.

Italy will qualify if it beats South Africa or if it draws and Argentina draws or loses against Sweden.

Argentina and South Africa both need to win to stand any chance of reaching the knockout stages.

If they both win, three teams will be on four points and it will again come down to goal difference, then goals scored, then head-to-head.

After the thrill of winning successive Women’s World Cup titles, the 2023 tournament – so far – has brought the US team very much down to earth with a bump.

Hearts must have been in the mouths of US fans during Tuesday’s tense 0-0 draw with Portugal as the four-time world champion came within inches of being knocked out of the tournament altogether.

Portugal was desperately unlucky not to engineer one of the great Women’s Cup shocks, notably when Ana Capeta’s shot deflected off the post in the last few minutes of the game.

For a team that has been so historically dominant at the Women’s World Cup, performances throughout the 2023 edition so far have been underwhelming for women’s soccer’s most dynastic team.

Their three matches at this tournament represents the US women’s worst group stage performance in World Cup history – and no team has ever won the competition having picked up so few points in the preliminary stage.

Goalscoring woes

Alex Morgan listed the lack of clinical finishing at the tournament as the main cause of the team’s woes.

“You know, I feel like it’s taking advantage of the chances that we have,” Morgan told reporters. “We created enough to put the ball in the back of the net.”

At the 2019 World Cup, the US scored 18 goals in its three group stage matches, compared to just four at this year’s edition, though 13 of them came in a famous win over Thailand. However, the goalless draw against Portugal marks the first time since 2015 that the team has failed to score in a World Cup game.

It is just the second time the US has failed to win its group – the other occasion being 2011, though they did progress to the final that year.

The USWNT had also never before failed to win at least two of its group games in any of its World Cup appearances.

However, this World Cup has arguably demonstrated a leveling up in the women’s game. True there have been some wide margins of victories – the Netherlands beat Vietnam 7-0 on Tuesday – but nothing to compare with Thailand’s humbling by the US four years ago.

Prior to Tuesday’s draw, the USWNT had a 10-0 winning record against Portugal, scoring 39 goals and conceding zero. In that context, it is easy to see the 0-0 draw as a disaster, but that would fail to take into account Portugal’s rapid progress that saw them hold England to a similarly stagnant draw and routing co-hosts New Zealand 5-0 in friendlies earlier this year.

Blending experience with potential

Four-time winners of the tournament, the USWNT arrived for their three Group E games in New Zealand looking to bring home the trophy for the third consecutive edition – something no team in either men’s or women’s football has achieved.

However, the squad perhaps does not possess the veneer of invincibility that characterized those squads.

It was defeated by Canada in the semifinals of the Tokyo Olympics in 2021 – having already been handily beaten 3-0 by Sweden earlier in the tournament. In October 2022, the team suffered back-to-back defeats to England and Spain in high-profile friendlies – marking the first time in over five years that had occurred.

While stalwarts of previous successes such as Megan Rapinoe and Morgan remain in the team, Andonovski has overseen something of a transitional period as a host of young talent looks to establish itself in the team. The US squad contains 14 World Cup debutants – blending them in seems to have taken a toll on the usual ruthless efficiency of the team.

It should also be remembered that the USWNT is missing a number of players due to injury: forwards Mallory Swanson, Christen Press and Tobin Heath, midfielders Sam Mewis and Catarina Macario, as well as defenders Becky Sauerbrunn and Abby Dahlkemper.

Doubt among the fans?

Known for their extravagant support of the normally all-conquering side, US women’s soccer fans appeared to demonstrate the same nerves that reverberated among the squad during the draw against Portugal in Auckland.

From the outset, the players were greeted by a relatively subdued fanbase with supporters arriving at the stadium much later in comparison to the matches against Vietnam and the Netherlands. Both of those games had seen fans streaming in more than an hour before kick-off – whereas empty seats remained plentiful at Tuesday’s decider right up until the start of the game.

Similarly, tension seemed to affect the vociferousness of the crowd. Compared to the constant cheering and chanting that accompanied the US draw with the Netherlands in Wellington, the loudest cheers against Portugal came when substitutes Rapinoe and Trinity Rodman entered the fray.

Criticism

Former US stars have been scathing in some of their analysis, most vocally Carli Lloyd, who said the team was “lucky not to be going home right now” following the “lackluster and uninspiring” performance against Portugal.

“There is a difference between being respectful to the fans and saying hello to your family, but to be dancing, to be smiling – I mean the player of the match was that post,” Lloyd said in response to footage of Rapinoe, Morgan and Crystal Dunn dancing before the Portugal match.

“To question the mentality of this team, to question the willingness to win, to compete, I think is insane,” Andonovksi said. “Everyone is entitled to their opinion and you know, they can say whatever they want, but I just know how this team feels,” he added.

Three-peat?

Amid the criticism it should be remembered that winning three championships in a row is extremely hard to do at the professional club level in any sport, let alone the World Cup in international soccer – no nation has ever won three consecutive World Cups in either the men’s or women’s game.

The biggest enemies of sustained success in sports are waning motivation and, most often, time. The amount of effort, skill and sustained passion it takes to keep up success over a long period of time is beyond difficult and the years between World Cup editions only ratchet that tension up.

Professional teams have a hard enough time keeping a core championship group together and healthy for three consecutive years on a club level – the US women’s team is attempting to do the same thing eight years after winning the 2015 World Cup.

The legendary generation of players which won that tournament is largely gone – just five players from 2015 remain on the squad in this tournament.

The teams that have pulled off three-peats are often legendary. The 1990s Chicago Bulls, the late 90s-early 00s New York Yankees and Los Angeles Lakers, the mid-century Boston Celtics and Montreal Canadiens, the New York Yankees (again) in the 1930s and 40s – all teams that live long in the consciousness of American sports fans.

In club soccer since 2000, only an iconic Real Madrid side led by Cristiano Ronaldo won three UEFA Champions Leagues in a row from 2016 to 2018.

Meanwhile Spain is the only country to ever win three major international championships in a row – Euro 2008, the 2010 World Cup and Euro 2012 – and those were still two different competitions taking place every two years, not very comparable to what the US women are attempting to do in winning three World Cups in a row.

This US Women’s National Team still has a path – albeit one that might be rockier and steeper than most observers expected even two weeks ago – to join those legendary ranks. If they pull it off, perhaps the disappointing draws from the 2023 tournament’s group stage will be seen as a case of survive-and-advance.

Eyes on the prize

USWNT players and Andonovski are looking ahead to the knockout stage, where they will meet the winner of Group G – almost certain to be Sweden, barring a 10-goal swing in the final round of fixtures.

“The approach is do or die,” Morgan told reporters after the game. “You know, the knockout stage, anything can happen and we are looking to get back, feel good, get our bodies back and we’ll be watching tomorrow to see who will be playing.”

Star midfielder Lindsey Horan, who has scored two of the team’s four goals, was keen to focus on the positives after the game but recognizes the need for improvement.

“I’m very confident in this team,” she said after the match. “Obviously, this is not the performance that anyone wanted to see, or we felt like we could do.

“I think we need more and we build off of that. You’re going to see a better team in the round of 16.”

Andonovski himself added, “We’re not happy with our performance, but we qualify for the next round. We’re moving on.”

The USWNT’s next fixture takes place on Sunday at 5 a.m. ET. A game against Sweden, No. 3 ranked in the world by FIFA, has plenty of World Cup history. Sweden drew with the US in 2015 and also beat them in 2011 – the last time any team defeated the USWNT inside regulation at a World Cup. The US defeated the Scandinavian side in the group stage in 2019.

US coach Vlatko Andonovski said it was “insane” for anyone to question the team’s commitment as he responded to criticism from former American international soccer star Carli Lloyd.

“The player of the match was that post,” two-time World Cup winner and former US player Lloyd said on the FOX broadcast – a reference to Portugal hitting the upright late on – adding that her former teammates are “lucky to not be going home right now.”

The 0-0 draw in Auckland on Tuesday, New Zealand, saw the four-time world champion finish as runner-up in Group E, likely setting up a meeting with Sweden in the last 16 on Sunday.

“Everyone is entitled to opinion and, you know, they can say whatever they want, but I just know how this team feels,” he added.

Andonovksi, however, acknowledged that the team underperformed against Portugal, as the US came painfully close to exiting the tournament when substitute Ana Capeta hit the post in the dying moments of the game for the European team.

“It’s not like we played well by any means, but we owned it,” said Andonovski. “We know that it’s not good enough … We’re not happy with our performance, but we qualify for the next round. We’re moving on.”

Lloyd’s comments came after images surfaced of the American players’ reaction following the draw.

“I have never witnessed something like that,” she said, adding: “To be dancing, to be smiling?”

What’s gone wrong for the USWNT?

A victory against Vietnam and draws against the Netherlands and Portugal mean this was the US’ worst-ever group stage performance at a World Cup, according to FIFA, and Tuesday’s game was just the sixth time in the history of the tournament that the team has failed to score.

And that’s not all: this was the first time the US has failed to win successive World Cup group stage matches and the second time (after 2011) that it has failed to win its group.

No team has ever won the Women’s World Cup having collected as little as five points in the group stages, but now the defending champion must try and do exactly that.

“The performances aren’t where we want them,” experienced forward Megan Rapinoe, who came on as a second-half substitute against Portugal, told reporters.

“But we’re through to the next round. We’re finding ways to get results that we need and I think finding our way into the tournament.

“We obviously haven’t played together a ton as the same lineup over a long period of time, we have people come back from injuries. It’s no excuse but I think we knew it was going to take a little bit of time to get into the tournament. Now it’s time to figure it out.”

The current US team is a mix of older players like Rapinoe, Alex Morgan and Kelley O’Hara – all appearing in their fourth World Cups – and younger players like Sophia Smith, who scored twice against Vietnam, making their debuts at the tournament.

It’s clear, as the players themselves know, that things haven’t clicked for Andonovski’s team yet.

“I think we just haven’t really controlled the ball as well as we would like to,” midfielder Julie Ertz told reporters after the game against Portugal.

“I think we’re giving up easy transitions for other teams. So I think for us, it’s just honing in and having more quality on the ball … It’s coming together as a team and really providing options for each other. I think there are a lot of little small things that we can do to just collectively hold onto the ball better.”

What’s next for the US team?

The message from Andonovski and his players is that this is not time to panic.

Despite a nerve-wracking conclusion in the draw against Portugal and finishing behind the Netherlands, the US would appear on paper to have enough experience and star quality to beat any team in the tournament.

Next up will likely be Sweden, which currently sits top of Group G, though that last-16 matchup won’t be confirmed until the conclusion of Wednesday’s games.

“The approach is it’s do or die,” Morgan told reporters. “The knockout stage – anything can happen and we are looking to get back, feel good, get our bodies back, and we’ll be watching tomorrow to see who we will be playing.

“I don’t think it’s big adjustments. I feel like it’s taking advantage of the chances that we have. We created enough to put the ball in the back of the net.”

The US team’s historical success at the tournament places enormous pressure on the side each time it takes to the field. As well as winning four world titles – 1991, 1999, 2015 and 2019 – the US has shown remarkable consistency by reaching at least the semifinals of every Women’s World Cup.

To make matters harder, there will be no Rose Lavelle for the round-of-16 game with the midfielder suspended after picking up a second yellow card against Portugal. The players, however, remain undaunted by the weight of adversity and expectation.

“I’m very confident in this team,” midfielder Lindsey Horan told reporters. “Obviously, this is not the performance that anyone wanted to see, or we felt like, you know, we could do. I think we need more and we will build off of that. You’re gonna see a better team in the round of 16.”

The UNESCO World Heritage Committee has decided not to add the Great Barrier Reef to its list of sites “in danger,” despite overwhelming scientific evidence that suggests it’s at risk of another mass bleaching this coming summer – and scientists are questioning why.

At its meeting in Paris on Monday, the committee said the Australian government had made “significant progress” but the reef remains under “serious threat” from climate change and pollution.

The committee added that “sustained action to implement the priority recommendations of the mission is essential in order to improve (its) long-term resilience,” and asked the government to report back with an update by February 1 – at the height of the Australian summer.

But scientists say there’s little prospect of radical improvement just six months from now, especially as climate forecasters say the arrival of El Niño, a natural climate fluctuation which typically has a warming impact, will likely make oceans even hotter.

“Current global emissions policies put us on track for about 2.7 degrees (Celsius). So, with our current policies and current emissions, we’re very clearly on track to see at least a 99% decline in global coral reefs, and if that doesn’t scream the reef’s in danger, then I’m not sure what will,” said Reid.

Covering nearly 133,000 square miles (345,000 square kilometers), the Great Barrier Reef is home to more than 1,500 species of fish and 411 species of hard corals. It contributes billions of dollars to the Australian economy each year, and is promoted heavily to foreign tourists as one of the country’s – and the world’s – greatest natural wonders.

Since the World Heritage Committee first raised the possibility of an “in danger” rating in 2021, successive Australian governments have been working hard to convince the committee that they are diligent custodians.

Environment minister Tanya Plibersek told reporters Tuesday she made no apology for lobbying UNESCO to keep the Great Barrier Reef off the “in danger” list.

“Lobbying is about telling the truth about what we’re doing,” said Plibersek, listing off the Labor government’s major environmental policies since coming to power in 2022, including spending millions of dollars on improving water quality and reef management, as well as measures to reduce planet-heating pollution including setting emissions targets and electrifying homes.

‘Some recovery’ but more work needed

Under the previous government, the Great Barrier Reef suffered severe mass bleaching in 2016, 2017 and 2020, caused by hotter ocean temperatures as the world continues to burn planet-heating fossil fuels.

Another bleaching event in 2022 – the first during a La Niña event, El Niño’s counterpart, which tends to have a cooling influence – raised serious concerns about its outlook and the country’s management plans.

In Monday’s draft decision, the committee said the reef had experienced “some recovery” since the last bleaching event and that populations of a number of key species were increasing or stable.

The committee also noted its “appreciation” for the government’s recent actions, but said more needed to be done to improve water quality and to “strengthen the Reef 2050 Plan to include clear government commitments to reduce greenhouse emissions.”

Plibersek said the government was well aware more work needed to be done, to protect not only the reef but the thousands of Australians whose jobs rely on it.

“No-one needs to tell Australia to look after the reef today. No-one takes protecting the reef more seriously. I am pleased that’s been acknowledged by the international community,” Plibersek said.

But scientists pointed out that the reef’s outlook is unlikely to improve between now and February 1, the deadline for the government to issue another progress update.

“The UNESCO update on the Great Barrier has kicked the can down the road – delaying the next assessment on listing the Reef as “in danger” by another year,” said Terry Hughes, director of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies at James Cook University, in a written statement.

On Tuesday, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said the arrival of El Niño was “likely in the coming weeks,” though the US National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the World Meteorological Organization have already announced its arrival.

“As El Niño conditions strengthen once more, it’s very likely we’ll see another mass bleaching event next summer, just after the report is written,” Hughes said.

David Booth, professor of Marine Ecology at UTS and president of the Australian Coral Reef Society, pointed out the apparent contradiction between the government’s stated efforts to protect the reef and its recent approval for new fossil fuel projects.

According to the Australia Institute’s Coal Mine Tracker, the government has approved three new coal mines or expansions since coming to power in May 2022.

“Will the Federal Government finally face up to reality and stop all coal and gas production and export – especially new gas developments such as the Adani field? It is almost too late to save the Reef, along with its huge tourism and fishing industries,” said Booth in a statement.

Jodie Rummer, a professor of Marine Biology at James Cook University, said the “in danger” listing was “irrelevant,” and the world needs to face up to the severe threat that accelerated climate change poses to the Great Barrier Reef and others worldwide.

“That’s what’s going to make the single biggest difference in how these extreme events these marine heat waves will be faced both now and into the future.”