Jamaica’s ‘Reggae Girlz’ are becoming accustomed to making history.

The team secured the country’s first ever Women’s World Cup point against France and then went one better by earning a first ever victory with a narrow 1-0 win over Panama.

If the team is to add another historic achievement to its resumé and reach the knockout stages of a World Cup – men’s or women’s – for the first time, it will need to avoid defeat against Brazil.

The team knows just a draw will be enough to progress to the round of 16 and will be boosted by the return of star striker Khadija Shaw, who was suspended for the win over Panama after picking up a late red card in the team’s opener.

Brazil, currently a point behind Jamaica, knows only a victory will suffice – As Canarinhas can technically still progress with a draw, but would simultaneously require the extraordinarily unlikely scenario of a Panama victory over France.

Brazil legend Marta, considered by most to be the greatest female footballer of all time, has only been used as a second-half substitute so far in Australia and New Zealand and it’s likely she will continue in that role moving forward.

Ary Borges, who scored a hat-trick for Brazil against Panama, is just one of a number of talented youngsters coming through the ranks that are tasked with a least partially filling Marta’s sizable shoes.

The 37-year-old is playing in her sixth and final World Cup and a major title with Brazil is the only accomplishment missing from her glittering career.

In Group F’s other match, France can secure top spot with a victory over already eliminated Panama.

Group G

Sweden is already through to the last 16 and only needs a draw against Argentina to guarantee top spot.

Italy will qualify if it beats South Africa or if it draws and Argentina draws or loses against Sweden.

Argentina and South Africa both need to win to stand any chance of reaching the knockout stages.

If they both win, three teams will be on four points and it will again come down to goal difference, then goals scored, then head-to-head.

After the thrill of winning successive Women’s World Cup titles, the 2023 tournament – so far – has brought the US team very much down to earth with a bump.

Hearts must have been in the mouths of US fans during Tuesday’s tense 0-0 draw with Portugal as the four-time world champion came within inches of being knocked out of the tournament altogether.

Portugal was desperately unlucky not to engineer one of the great Women’s Cup shocks, notably when Ana Capeta’s shot deflected off the post in the last few minutes of the game.

For a team that has been so historically dominant at the Women’s World Cup, performances throughout the 2023 edition so far have been underwhelming for women’s soccer’s most dynastic team.

Their three matches at this tournament represents the US women’s worst group stage performance in World Cup history – and no team has ever won the competition having picked up so few points in the preliminary stage.

Goalscoring woes

Alex Morgan listed the lack of clinical finishing at the tournament as the main cause of the team’s woes.

“You know, I feel like it’s taking advantage of the chances that we have,” Morgan told reporters. “We created enough to put the ball in the back of the net.”

At the 2019 World Cup, the US scored 18 goals in its three group stage matches, compared to just four at this year’s edition, though 13 of them came in a famous win over Thailand. However, the goalless draw against Portugal marks the first time since 2015 that the team has failed to score in a World Cup game.

It is just the second time the US has failed to win its group – the other occasion being 2011, though they did progress to the final that year.

The USWNT had also never before failed to win at least two of its group games in any of its World Cup appearances.

However, this World Cup has arguably demonstrated a leveling up in the women’s game. True there have been some wide margins of victories – the Netherlands beat Vietnam 7-0 on Tuesday – but nothing to compare with Thailand’s humbling by the US four years ago.

Prior to Tuesday’s draw, the USWNT had a 10-0 winning record against Portugal, scoring 39 goals and conceding zero. In that context, it is easy to see the 0-0 draw as a disaster, but that would fail to take into account Portugal’s rapid progress that saw them hold England to a similarly stagnant draw and routing co-hosts New Zealand 5-0 in friendlies earlier this year.

Blending experience with potential

Four-time winners of the tournament, the USWNT arrived for their three Group E games in New Zealand looking to bring home the trophy for the third consecutive edition – something no team in either men’s or women’s football has achieved.

However, the squad perhaps does not possess the veneer of invincibility that characterized those squads.

It was defeated by Canada in the semifinals of the Tokyo Olympics in 2021 – having already been handily beaten 3-0 by Sweden earlier in the tournament. In October 2022, the team suffered back-to-back defeats to England and Spain in high-profile friendlies – marking the first time in over five years that had occurred.

While stalwarts of previous successes such as Megan Rapinoe and Morgan remain in the team, Andonovski has overseen something of a transitional period as a host of young talent looks to establish itself in the team. The US squad contains 14 World Cup debutants – blending them in seems to have taken a toll on the usual ruthless efficiency of the team.

It should also be remembered that the USWNT is missing a number of players due to injury: forwards Mallory Swanson, Christen Press and Tobin Heath, midfielders Sam Mewis and Catarina Macario, as well as defenders Becky Sauerbrunn and Abby Dahlkemper.

Doubt among the fans?

Known for their extravagant support of the normally all-conquering side, US women’s soccer fans appeared to demonstrate the same nerves that reverberated among the squad during the draw against Portugal in Auckland.

From the outset, the players were greeted by a relatively subdued fanbase with supporters arriving at the stadium much later in comparison to the matches against Vietnam and the Netherlands. Both of those games had seen fans streaming in more than an hour before kick-off – whereas empty seats remained plentiful at Tuesday’s decider right up until the start of the game.

Similarly, tension seemed to affect the vociferousness of the crowd. Compared to the constant cheering and chanting that accompanied the US draw with the Netherlands in Wellington, the loudest cheers against Portugal came when substitutes Rapinoe and Trinity Rodman entered the fray.

Criticism

Former US stars have been scathing in some of their analysis, most vocally Carli Lloyd, who said the team was “lucky not to be going home right now” following the “lackluster and uninspiring” performance against Portugal.

“There is a difference between being respectful to the fans and saying hello to your family, but to be dancing, to be smiling – I mean the player of the match was that post,” Lloyd said in response to footage of Rapinoe, Morgan and Crystal Dunn dancing before the Portugal match.

“To question the mentality of this team, to question the willingness to win, to compete, I think is insane,” Andonovksi said. “Everyone is entitled to their opinion and you know, they can say whatever they want, but I just know how this team feels,” he added.

Three-peat?

Amid the criticism it should be remembered that winning three championships in a row is extremely hard to do at the professional club level in any sport, let alone the World Cup in international soccer – no nation has ever won three consecutive World Cups in either the men’s or women’s game.

The biggest enemies of sustained success in sports are waning motivation and, most often, time. The amount of effort, skill and sustained passion it takes to keep up success over a long period of time is beyond difficult and the years between World Cup editions only ratchet that tension up.

Professional teams have a hard enough time keeping a core championship group together and healthy for three consecutive years on a club level – the US women’s team is attempting to do the same thing eight years after winning the 2015 World Cup.

The legendary generation of players which won that tournament is largely gone – just five players from 2015 remain on the squad in this tournament.

The teams that have pulled off three-peats are often legendary. The 1990s Chicago Bulls, the late 90s-early 00s New York Yankees and Los Angeles Lakers, the mid-century Boston Celtics and Montreal Canadiens, the New York Yankees (again) in the 1930s and 40s – all teams that live long in the consciousness of American sports fans.

In club soccer since 2000, only an iconic Real Madrid side led by Cristiano Ronaldo won three UEFA Champions Leagues in a row from 2016 to 2018.

Meanwhile Spain is the only country to ever win three major international championships in a row – Euro 2008, the 2010 World Cup and Euro 2012 – and those were still two different competitions taking place every two years, not very comparable to what the US women are attempting to do in winning three World Cups in a row.

This US Women’s National Team still has a path – albeit one that might be rockier and steeper than most observers expected even two weeks ago – to join those legendary ranks. If they pull it off, perhaps the disappointing draws from the 2023 tournament’s group stage will be seen as a case of survive-and-advance.

Eyes on the prize

USWNT players and Andonovski are looking ahead to the knockout stage, where they will meet the winner of Group G – almost certain to be Sweden, barring a 10-goal swing in the final round of fixtures.

“The approach is do or die,” Morgan told reporters after the game. “You know, the knockout stage, anything can happen and we are looking to get back, feel good, get our bodies back and we’ll be watching tomorrow to see who will be playing.”

Star midfielder Lindsey Horan, who has scored two of the team’s four goals, was keen to focus on the positives after the game but recognizes the need for improvement.

“I’m very confident in this team,” she said after the match. “Obviously, this is not the performance that anyone wanted to see, or we felt like we could do.

“I think we need more and we build off of that. You’re going to see a better team in the round of 16.”

Andonovski himself added, “We’re not happy with our performance, but we qualify for the next round. We’re moving on.”

The USWNT’s next fixture takes place on Sunday at 5 a.m. ET. A game against Sweden, No. 3 ranked in the world by FIFA, has plenty of World Cup history. Sweden drew with the US in 2015 and also beat them in 2011 – the last time any team defeated the USWNT inside regulation at a World Cup. The US defeated the Scandinavian side in the group stage in 2019.

US coach Vlatko Andonovski said it was “insane” for anyone to question the team’s commitment as he responded to criticism from former American international soccer star Carli Lloyd.

“The player of the match was that post,” two-time World Cup winner and former US player Lloyd said on the FOX broadcast – a reference to Portugal hitting the upright late on – adding that her former teammates are “lucky to not be going home right now.”

The 0-0 draw in Auckland on Tuesday, New Zealand, saw the four-time world champion finish as runner-up in Group E, likely setting up a meeting with Sweden in the last 16 on Sunday.

“Everyone is entitled to opinion and, you know, they can say whatever they want, but I just know how this team feels,” he added.

Andonovksi, however, acknowledged that the team underperformed against Portugal, as the US came painfully close to exiting the tournament when substitute Ana Capeta hit the post in the dying moments of the game for the European team.

“It’s not like we played well by any means, but we owned it,” said Andonovski. “We know that it’s not good enough … We’re not happy with our performance, but we qualify for the next round. We’re moving on.”

Lloyd’s comments came after images surfaced of the American players’ reaction following the draw.

“I have never witnessed something like that,” she said, adding: “To be dancing, to be smiling?”

What’s gone wrong for the USWNT?

A victory against Vietnam and draws against the Netherlands and Portugal mean this was the US’ worst-ever group stage performance at a World Cup, according to FIFA, and Tuesday’s game was just the sixth time in the history of the tournament that the team has failed to score.

And that’s not all: this was the first time the US has failed to win successive World Cup group stage matches and the second time (after 2011) that it has failed to win its group.

No team has ever won the Women’s World Cup having collected as little as five points in the group stages, but now the defending champion must try and do exactly that.

“The performances aren’t where we want them,” experienced forward Megan Rapinoe, who came on as a second-half substitute against Portugal, told reporters.

“But we’re through to the next round. We’re finding ways to get results that we need and I think finding our way into the tournament.

“We obviously haven’t played together a ton as the same lineup over a long period of time, we have people come back from injuries. It’s no excuse but I think we knew it was going to take a little bit of time to get into the tournament. Now it’s time to figure it out.”

The current US team is a mix of older players like Rapinoe, Alex Morgan and Kelley O’Hara – all appearing in their fourth World Cups – and younger players like Sophia Smith, who scored twice against Vietnam, making their debuts at the tournament.

It’s clear, as the players themselves know, that things haven’t clicked for Andonovski’s team yet.

“I think we just haven’t really controlled the ball as well as we would like to,” midfielder Julie Ertz told reporters after the game against Portugal.

“I think we’re giving up easy transitions for other teams. So I think for us, it’s just honing in and having more quality on the ball … It’s coming together as a team and really providing options for each other. I think there are a lot of little small things that we can do to just collectively hold onto the ball better.”

What’s next for the US team?

The message from Andonovski and his players is that this is not time to panic.

Despite a nerve-wracking conclusion in the draw against Portugal and finishing behind the Netherlands, the US would appear on paper to have enough experience and star quality to beat any team in the tournament.

Next up will likely be Sweden, which currently sits top of Group G, though that last-16 matchup won’t be confirmed until the conclusion of Wednesday’s games.

“The approach is it’s do or die,” Morgan told reporters. “The knockout stage – anything can happen and we are looking to get back, feel good, get our bodies back, and we’ll be watching tomorrow to see who we will be playing.

“I don’t think it’s big adjustments. I feel like it’s taking advantage of the chances that we have. We created enough to put the ball in the back of the net.”

The US team’s historical success at the tournament places enormous pressure on the side each time it takes to the field. As well as winning four world titles – 1991, 1999, 2015 and 2019 – the US has shown remarkable consistency by reaching at least the semifinals of every Women’s World Cup.

To make matters harder, there will be no Rose Lavelle for the round-of-16 game with the midfielder suspended after picking up a second yellow card against Portugal. The players, however, remain undaunted by the weight of adversity and expectation.

“I’m very confident in this team,” midfielder Lindsey Horan told reporters. “Obviously, this is not the performance that anyone wanted to see, or we felt like, you know, we could do. I think we need more and we will build off of that. You’re gonna see a better team in the round of 16.”

Is there any food more globally glorified than pizza?

The ultimate comfort food that traces its roots to Naples, Italy, has been adapted by cultures all over the world. Italians have even devised a series of lists of the best pizzas outside of Italy.

And it’s precisely pizza’s versatility that makes it so universally beloved, says Fabio Errante, an Italian ​​pizzaiolo (pizza maker) and author of “Fabioulous Pizza.” Errante says he’s cooked more than 300,000 pizzas in his lifetime

Nino Coniglio, a ​​pizzaiolo and owner of Brooklyn Pizza Crew and Williamsburg Pizza in New York City, agrees that pizza’s adaptability is what makes it so popular.

It can be made with a near endless variety of toppings, he says, allowing individuals to create a pizza that’s just to their liking.

“Additionally, pizza is a social food that can be shared with friends and family, making it a perfect dish for gatherings and parties,” Coniglio says.

Pizza is also a comfort food that brings people together and evokes feelings of happiness and joy, he adds.

Can you relate?

Read on for some of the world’s most legendary pizza styles to try in Italy and beyond, plus versions of the concept of a crust with toppings that hail from other parts of the world.

Neapolitan pizza

Pizza is a comfort food to Neapolitans, says Naples, Italy, native Enzo Algarme, co-founder of Pupatella, a Neapolitan pizzeria with several locations in Virginia. “Pizza has brought people together for generations,” he says, and in Naples there’s a pizza shop in every neighborhood. “Italians cook all sorts of things at home, but pizza is the one thing Italians go out to eat,” Algarme says.

The Art of Neapolitan ‘Pizzaiuolo’ is officially recognized as a UNESCO Intangible Cultural Heritage.

The Associazione Verace Pizza Napoletana (AVPN), founded in Naples in 1984 to “promote and protect in Italy and worldwide the true Neapolitan pizza,” according to its website, maintains that true Neapolitan pizza must be garnished with peeled tomato crushed by hand, sliced fresh tomato, buffalo mozzarella or fior di latte (traditional mozzarella), fresh basil leaves and extra virgin olive oil.

The dough must be made using just water, salt, yeast and flour, according to the AVPN, and the pizza must always be baked in a wood-burning oven. Another hallmark of real Neapolitan pizza is the raised edges of its crust, called cornicione.

Roman pizza

There are two styles of pizza in Rome, says Henry Cunningham of The Roman Food Tour, which visits famous pizzerias among other iconic eateries during tours in Rome’s Prati and Trastevere neighborhoods. “Whole round pizza, called pizza tonda, and the rectangular pizza, al taglio, which means pizza by the slice.”

Pizza fans flock from all over the world to Pizzarium in Prati, owned by famed baker Gabriele Bonci, one of Italy’s most famous pizzaioli (and a star in the Netflix series, “Chef’s Table: Pizza”), to try the pizza al taglio, Cunningham says. Specify the type and how much you want (choosing from seasonal toppings such as zucchini flowers and artichokes), and your slice will be cut with scissors before your eyes and priced according to its weight.

Pizza tonda is “paper thin and the edge is super crispy and not raised at all, although some bubbles are accepted,” according to Errante. Olive oil in the dough adds to the crispiness of the finished crust. And the dough is usually prepared using a rolling pin, he says, “in order to blow all the gas pockets in the dough that otherwise would make the pizza puff up while baking.”

“Whatever you do, don’t dream of asking for it with pineapple,” says Tatyana Serraino, a guide with The Roman Food Tour who says that’s considered a cardinal sin.

Pizza fritta

Pizza in Italy also comes in a deep-fried variety, known as pizza fritta. A popular street food in Naples for pizza-lovers who don’t mind straying from true Neapolitan pizza, fried pizza gained popularity post-World War II, when supplies (including pizza-making staples such as mozzarella and wood to fire the ovens) were hard to come by.

The solution was to fry the pizza dough, with ricotta and pork fat tucked inside, for a puffier and more substantial effect.

“The curious fact is that it doesn’t look like pizza at all,” says Errante about pizza fritta. “The dough is usually stretched similarly to a regular pizza base, then all the ingredients your heart desires go in the middle of that base.”

Sometimes it comes as a rounded pocket, folded and sealed, that looks much like a deep-fried version of a calzone, he says.

Sicilian pizza

As its name implies, Sicilian pizza traces its origins to Sicily, off the southern tip of mainland Italy. When it made its way overseas, including to the United States, many characteristics of the original version stayed with it, says Errante.

Wherever you find Sicilian pizza in Sicily (including the capital, Palermo, where it’s called sfincione palermitano), it’s usually topped with strongly flavored ingredients that might include olives, anchovies or capers, he says. “But the common denominator is that this is a thick, soft pizza with a crispy bottom, and it’s baked in a tray,” Errante says. The thick crust is similar to focaccia.

Wood-fired pizza

Pizza restaurants often differentiate their product by promoting the fact that their pies are cooked in a wood-fired oven. And standard wood-fired pizzas – prepared in an oven using hardwoods that might include oak, beech or ash – can be found all over the world.

But wood-fired pizza is not actually a specific style, says Errante. “The name only refers to the fuel used in the oven, as opposed to electricity or gas,” he says. A pizzaiolo considers the heat-giving properties of different woods (hardwoods burn slower than softwoods such as spruce and pine) when determining which type to use in the oven.

“People like to think that wood gives some smokiness quality to the pizza,” Errante says. “But that’s a wrong assumption as the pizza stays in the oven too little to be affected in any way.”

But crisp, wood-fired crust certainly has its fans.

Detroit-style pizza

“Detroit-style pizza is one of the most trending styles of pizza in the United States right now,” says Derek Gaughan of Pala Pizza, a website about outdoor pizza ovens and homemade pizza.

It’s a thick-crust pan pizza with toppings that spread all the way to the edges and two large stripes of sauce on top, he says. “The unique aspect is that it’s cooked in heavy duty steel or aluminum pans with tall walls,” Gaughan says. “As the pizza bakes, the cheese on the edge melts against the hot pan, creating a crispy edge.” The dough, he says, is “essentially focaccia, with a thick yet airy interior and a crispy golden brown exterior.”

Another hallmark of Detroit pizza is its sauce application, which is always ladled on top of the cheese instead of under it, he says (although it’s up to the chef whether the sauce goes on before or after baking). And while Detroit pizza is having a moment, don’t overlook other Midwest favorites, too, including St. Louis pizza, known for its cracker-thin crust, and Columbus-style pizza, which similarly takes its toppings all the way to the edge of the circular pie.

New Haven-style pizza

Locals around New Haven, Connecticut, call their twist on the Neapolitan pizza “apizza” (pronounced ah-beetz). It’s a nickname inspired by the dialect of Italian spoken in Naples that was brought to the area by early immigrants.

Thin and crispy, New Haven-style pizza is cooked in scorching hot brick pizza ovens traditionally fired by coal that give the crust its signature charred effect (just don’t call it burned).

Among the beloved places to dig into it in New Haven are Sally’s Apizza, which has been around since 1938, and Pepe’s Pizzeria Napoletana, in business since 1925 and known for its original white clam pie, made with mozzarella, garlic, oregano and generous lashings of littleneck clams.

Chicago deep dish pizza

Despite Chicago deep dish pizza being the variety most people associate with the city, Chicago-style pizza actually covers several different styles, including stuffed pizza and “Chicago thin,” says Steve Dolinsky, author of “The Ultimate Chicago Pizza Guide.” In addition to deep dish pizza, he says, there’s also deep pan pizza (the latter has a thicker, “breadier” dough).

True markers of Chicago deep dish pizza are its biscuit-like dough, says Dolinsky, as well as the way the dough is pressed up along the sides of the pan and sinks lower in the middle of the pizza. “Slices of mozzarella are placed on top of the dough to cover it and protect it from the sauce, and on top of that go the toppings–typically raw sausage, pinched and pressed onto the pie,” he says.

The tomato sauce comes next, followed by dried oregano and grated pecorino cheese. Chicago deep dish pizza was invented in 1943 at the restaurant currently known as Pizzeria Uno, Dolinsky says, and some of the best places to sample it in Chicago include My Pi and Lou Malnati’s Pizzeria.

Cuban pizza

Popularized by members of the Cuban diaspora in Miami, Cuban pizza differs from typical American-style pizzas in its liberal application of not only mozzarella but Gouda cheese (the latter was once an imported staple on the island).

Rather than getting piled on top of the pie, the toppings for Cuban pizza are baked right into it. With several locations in Miami, Rey Pizza offers Cuban pizza varieties that include chorizo, picadillo (ground beef) and platano (plantain).

Tarte flambée

While not what we’d traditionally call pizza, this flatbread-style tart from eastern France’s Alsace region is made with a yeast-free dough that emerges from the oven with a pizza-like crust that’s thin and crispy. Also called flammekueche, it’s also widely enjoyed at home and in restaurants in parts of neighboring Germany.

Traditional toppings for tarte flambée include fromage blanc (a fresh, spreadable cheese), crème fraîche, lardons (smoked bacon) and onions.

Catalan coca

An essential recipe from the Catalonia region in northeastern Spain and the Balearic Islands, this Spanish twist on pizza is typically made without sauce or cheese. Flour, salt, water, yeast and extra virgin olive oil are used to make Catalan coca’s oval-shaped base.

Traditional toppings include heaps of caramelized onions and roasted vegetables, such as red peppers and spinach. Variations on the theme might add sausage, eggplant, olive and salted cod, among other ingredients. There are sweet versions of coca (the word refers to the pie’s crust), too.

Lahmacun

Found everywhere from the alleys of Istanbul and Yerevan to the streets of Berlin and Hamburg (home to many Turkish immigrants), Lahmacun is Turkey’s answer to pizza and is also a popular fast food in neighboring Armenia. Its exact origins are difficult to ascertain, and versions of it are widely enjoyed across the Middle East.

The large, thin, flatbread-style dish is easy to fold and stuff into your mouth and comes topped with ground meat, typically beef or lamb. Classic garnishes include parsley, lemon, onion and tomato. When in Turkey, also look for pide – another pizza-like dish shaped like a canoe, with its ends pinched together, that has a thicker and softer crust than lahmacun.

Khachapuri

Georgia’s famous khachapuri, similarly beloved and claimed by Armenians, is another boat-shaped thing of beauty akin to pizza. Leavened dough rises to billowing effect and is then filled with cheese and runny eggs, cracked and dropped on top – all the better for ripping off the edges of the crust and dipping them straight into the pie’s gooey middle.

In Georgia, khachapuri is typically made using a mix of imeruli (a fresh curd cheese made from cow’s milk) and sulguni (a sour and salty cheese that can be made from cow, buffalo or goat milk). Mozzarella, ricotta and feta can be substituted if you can’t get your hands on those.

New York slice pizza

Back in the largely Italian-influenced pizza realm of New York City, you can find all kinds of savory pie. But the most iconic is New York slice pizza, a grab-and-go style cooked in a gas oven typically cut from 18 and 22-inch circular pies (depending on who you ask) that serves as an ideal snack in the quick-paced urban environment.

Sauce preparations can vary and some chefs put semolina on the underside of the crust, says Ciro Verde, a master pizzaiola at Coco Pazzeria who was born in Astoria, Queens, and spent his summers in Naples, Italy.

“New York slice pizza uses a low-moisture and low-fat mozzarella that’s dry, almost more of a provolone,” Verde says. He recommends trying authentic New York slice pizza at Amore Pizzeria in the Flushing neighborhood of Queens (for a whole pie, try the Italo-Americano New York style pepperoni pizza at Coco Pazzeria).

Coniglio contends that New York slice pizza is “supposed to be crispy, must be at least 22 inches and has to be cut into eight slices.”

When it comes to how to eat it, however, he’s more flexible.

“Do whatever you want, but you’re not a true New Yorker if you’re not folding it and walking down the street with a slice,” he says.

The UNESCO World Heritage Committee has decided not to add the Great Barrier Reef to its list of sites “in danger,” despite overwhelming scientific evidence that suggests it’s at risk of another mass bleaching this coming summer – and scientists are questioning why.

At its meeting in Paris on Monday, the committee said the Australian government had made “significant progress” but the reef remains under “serious threat” from climate change and pollution.

The committee added that “sustained action to implement the priority recommendations of the mission is essential in order to improve (its) long-term resilience,” and asked the government to report back with an update by February 1 – at the height of the Australian summer.

But scientists say there’s little prospect of radical improvement just six months from now, especially as climate forecasters say the arrival of El Niño, a natural climate fluctuation which typically has a warming impact, will likely make oceans even hotter.

“Current global emissions policies put us on track for about 2.7 degrees (Celsius). So, with our current policies and current emissions, we’re very clearly on track to see at least a 99% decline in global coral reefs, and if that doesn’t scream the reef’s in danger, then I’m not sure what will,” said Reid.

Covering nearly 133,000 square miles (345,000 square kilometers), the Great Barrier Reef is home to more than 1,500 species of fish and 411 species of hard corals. It contributes billions of dollars to the Australian economy each year, and is promoted heavily to foreign tourists as one of the country’s – and the world’s – greatest natural wonders.

Since the World Heritage Committee first raised the possibility of an “in danger” rating in 2021, successive Australian governments have been working hard to convince the committee that they are diligent custodians.

Environment minister Tanya Plibersek told reporters Tuesday she made no apology for lobbying UNESCO to keep the Great Barrier Reef off the “in danger” list.

“Lobbying is about telling the truth about what we’re doing,” said Plibersek, listing off the Labor government’s major environmental policies since coming to power in 2022, including spending millions of dollars on improving water quality and reef management, as well as measures to reduce planet-heating pollution including setting emissions targets and electrifying homes.

‘Some recovery’ but more work needed

Under the previous government, the Great Barrier Reef suffered severe mass bleaching in 2016, 2017 and 2020, caused by hotter ocean temperatures as the world continues to burn planet-heating fossil fuels.

Another bleaching event in 2022 – the first during a La Niña event, El Niño’s counterpart, which tends to have a cooling influence – raised serious concerns about its outlook and the country’s management plans.

In Monday’s draft decision, the committee said the reef had experienced “some recovery” since the last bleaching event and that populations of a number of key species were increasing or stable.

The committee also noted its “appreciation” for the government’s recent actions, but said more needed to be done to improve water quality and to “strengthen the Reef 2050 Plan to include clear government commitments to reduce greenhouse emissions.”

Plibersek said the government was well aware more work needed to be done, to protect not only the reef but the thousands of Australians whose jobs rely on it.

“No-one needs to tell Australia to look after the reef today. No-one takes protecting the reef more seriously. I am pleased that’s been acknowledged by the international community,” Plibersek said.

But scientists pointed out that the reef’s outlook is unlikely to improve between now and February 1, the deadline for the government to issue another progress update.

“The UNESCO update on the Great Barrier has kicked the can down the road – delaying the next assessment on listing the Reef as “in danger” by another year,” said Terry Hughes, director of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies at James Cook University, in a written statement.

On Tuesday, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said the arrival of El Niño was “likely in the coming weeks,” though the US National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the World Meteorological Organization have already announced its arrival.

“As El Niño conditions strengthen once more, it’s very likely we’ll see another mass bleaching event next summer, just after the report is written,” Hughes said.

David Booth, professor of Marine Ecology at UTS and president of the Australian Coral Reef Society, pointed out the apparent contradiction between the government’s stated efforts to protect the reef and its recent approval for new fossil fuel projects.

According to the Australia Institute’s Coal Mine Tracker, the government has approved three new coal mines or expansions since coming to power in May 2022.

“Will the Federal Government finally face up to reality and stop all coal and gas production and export – especially new gas developments such as the Adani field? It is almost too late to save the Reef, along with its huge tourism and fishing industries,” said Booth in a statement.

Jodie Rummer, a professor of Marine Biology at James Cook University, said the “in danger” listing was “irrelevant,” and the world needs to face up to the severe threat that accelerated climate change poses to the Great Barrier Reef and others worldwide.

“That’s what’s going to make the single biggest difference in how these extreme events these marine heat waves will be faced both now and into the future.”