South Korea looks set for a dramatic political showdown this week as impeachment proceedings kick off against suspended President Yoon Suk Yeol, who remains holed up in his fortified residence evading arrest for a separate criminal investigation.

The embattled leader’s short-lived declaration of martial law in December triggered widespread public outrage and protests, and plunged the country into its biggest political crisis in decades.

For weeks, Yoon has barricaded himself in his hillside compound in the capital Seoul, surrounded by his Presidential Security Service (PSS) team, while outside the gates hundreds of his die-hard conservative supporters have vowed to protect him.

Yoon has indicated through his lawyer that he will not attend the first formal hearing in his impeachment trial on Tuesday, citing safety concerns relating to efforts to detain him for questioning, according to South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency.

The former prosecutor-turned-politician was stripped of his presidential powers last month after his declaration of martial law, and is wanted for questioning in multiple investigations, including allegations he led an insurrection – a crime punishable by life imprisonment or even the death penalty.

Yoon maintains he acted legitimately in declaring martial law and considers the warrant “illegal and invalid.” He has told his supporters that he will “fight until the end.”

Supporters are concerned Yoon will be detained if he leaves his residence to attend the impeachment hearings. Rival protesters have also braved cold conditions to call for his arrest.

Corruption investigators are determined to execute the arrest warrant against Yoon – the first time such action has been taken against a sitting president.

Tensions exploded earlier this month when investigators attempted to detain Yoon at his residence, resulting in a dramatic hours-long standoff between dozens of police and a “human wall” of around 200 soldiers and members of the presidential security detail.

The arrest attempt was later called off with investigators citing the safety of the people on the ground, though the arrest warrant was extended.

Yoon has also filed legal complaints against those who tried to arrest him including the head of the state anti-corruption agency.

Political fate in hands of top court

Yoon swiftly rescinded his late-night martial law declaration on December 3, after lawmakers pushed past security forces blocking their way into parliament and voted down the decree.

The National Assembly then voted to impeach Yoon after several members of his own ruling party turned on him. Parliament also voted to impeach the country’s prime minister and acting president Han Duck-soo. The finance minister, Choi Sang-mok, is now acting president.

The country’s Constitutional Court has the ultimate say over Yoon and Han’s political fate, and will determine whether they will be formally removed from their positions or reinstated.

Oral arguments for Yoon’s trial start Tuesday, with five sessions scheduled until February 4. If Yoon fails to appear on Tuesday, a second hearing will proceed on Thursday, with or without him in attendance.

The court has up to 180 days to decide whether to uphold or reject the impeachment vote, and vowed to make the case a “top priority.”

Complicating the court’s deliberations is that the nine-member court currently only has eight justices, due to a delay in filling vacancies left by retired justices.

Acting President Choi recently filled two out of three vacancies on the court appointed by the parliament, and the remaining position will be reviewed by the court later this month.

Under South Korea’s constitution, at least six justices must approve an impeachment for it to be upheld.

If the Constitutional Court upholds Yoon’s impeachment, he would become the shortest-serving president in South Korea’s democratic history. The country must then hold new presidential elections within 60 days.

Criminal investigations

While Yoon has been suspended from exercising his powers, he has not been officially removed from office. That means he still has presidential immunity from most criminal charges – except for insurrection or treason.

South Korea’s police, military, and anti-corruption body have formed a joint investigation team to examine the charges of insurrection and abuse of power against Yoon. Meanwhile, prosecutors are investigating key figures involved in the martial law operation, including commanders and the defense minister.

Yoon has refused to answer three summonses in recent weeks asking for his cooperation, according to the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO.)

Meanwhile, corruption investigators appear to be pushing ahead with their second attempt to arrest the suspended president.

On Sunday, the CIO said it had asked the Defense Ministry and presidential security team for cooperation with enforcing the arrest and search warrant against Yoon.

Much of the spotlight has fallen on the presidential security team, the PSS, which has been accused of acting like Yoon’s personal bodyguards. Previously, the CIO said “it is virtually impossible to execute a warrant” at Yoon’s residence while security there remains in place.

The CIO on Sunday asked the country’s defense ministry to ensure soldiers dispatched to the security team protecting Yoon do not disrupt efforts to arrest him.

It also said the security team should avoid an “illegal act” such as mobilizing security personnel for jobs outside of their duties, and warned that disruption could result in criminal punishment.

There is also some confusion as to which agency has jurisdiction to carry out the arrest warrant. Yoon’s lawyers on Monday accused the police of being complicit in an “illegal arrest and abuse of power,” and that “any evidence obtained through such actions would be deemed illegal.”

Yoon’s lawyers argue the warrant should be executed by the CIO, not the police. South Korean law, however, states that police are authorized to assist other authorities in carrying out public duties.

On Friday, the head of Yoon’s PSS, Park Chong-jun, submitted his resignation before undergoing police questioning over his role in blocking Yoon’s arrest, according to the security team.

Once the warrant has been enforced, it starts a 48-hour countdown for investigators to hold and question Yoon. The CIO would need to apply for another warrant within that period to formally arrest him.

(AP) — An emergency task force arrived in Russia’s southern Krasnodar region on Sunday as an oil spill in the Kerch Strait from two storm-stricken tankers continues to spread a month after it was first detected, officials said.

The task force, which includes Emergency Situations Minister Alexander Kurenkov, was set up after Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday called on authorities to ramp up the response to the spill, calling it “one of the most serious environmental challenges we have faced in recent years.”

Kurenkov said that “the most difficult situation” had developed near the port of Taman in the Krasnodar region, where fuel oil continues to leak into the sea from the damaged part of the Volgoneft-239 tanker.

Kurenkov was quoted as saying by Russian state news agency RIA Novosti that the remaining oil will be pumped out of the tanker’s stern.

The Emergencies Ministry said Saturday that over 155,000 tons of contaminated sand and soil had been collected since oil spilled out of two tankers during a storm four weeks ago in the Kerch Strait, which separates the Russia-occupied Crimean Peninsula from the Krasnodar region.

Russian-installed officials in Ukraine’s partially Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia region said Saturday that the mazut — a heavy, low-quality oil product — had reached the Berdyansk Spit, some 145 kilometers (90 miles) north of the Kerch Strait. It contaminated an area 14.5 kilometers (9 miles) long, Moscow-installed Gov. Yevgeny Balitsky wrote on Telegram.

Russian-appointed officials in Moscow-occupied Crimea announced a regional emergency last weekend after oil was detected on the shores of Sevastopol, the peninsula’s largest city, about 250 kilometers (155 miles) from the Kerch Strait.

In response to Putin’s call for action, Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Heorhii Tykhyi accused Russia of “beginning to demonstrate its alleged ‘concern’ only after the scale of the disaster became too obvious to conceal its terrible consequences.”

“Russia’s practice of first ignoring the problem, then admitting its inability to solve it, and ultimately leaving the entire Black Sea region alone with the consequences is yet another proof of its international irresponsibility,” Tykhyi said Friday.

The Kerch Strait is an important global shipping route, providing passage from the inland Sea of Azov to the Black Sea. It has also been a key point of conflict between Russia and Ukraine after Moscow annexed the peninsula in 2014.

In 2016, Ukraine took Moscow to the Permanent Court of Arbitration, where it accused Russia of trying to seize control of the area illegally. In 2021, Russia closed the strait for several months.

Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the head of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s office, described the oil spill last month as a “large-scale environmental disaster” and called for additional sanctions on Russian tankers.

Islamabad, Pakistan (Reuters) — Nobel Peace Prize winner Malala Yousafzai urged Muslim leaders on Sunday to back efforts to make gender apartheid a crime under international law, and called on them to speak out against Afghanistan’s Taliban over its treatment of women and girls.

At a summit on girls’ education in Muslim communities attended by international leaders and scholars in her home country of Pakistan, Yousafzai said Muslim voices must lead the way against the policies of the Taliban, who have barred teenage girls from school and women from universities.

“In Afghanistan an entire generation of girls will be robbed of its future,” she said in a speech in Islamabad. “As Muslim leaders, now is the time to raise your voice, use your power.”

The Taliban say they respect women’s rights in accordance with their interpretation of Afghan culture and Islamic law. Taliban administration spokespeople did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Yousafzai’s statements.

No foreign government has formally recognized the Taliban since it took over Afghanistan in 2021 and diplomats have said steps towards recognition require a change of course on women’s rights.

Yousafzai survived being shot in the head when she was 15 in Pakistan by a gunman after campaigning against the Pakistani Taliban’s moves to deny girls an education.

The summit, organised by the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and the Muslim World League, included dozens of ministers and scholars from Muslim-majority countries.

Yousafzai asked the scholars to “openly challenge and denounce the Taliban’s oppressive laws” and for political leaders to support the addition of gender apartheid to crimes against humanity under international criminal law.

The summit was hosted by Pakistan, which has had frosty relations with the Afghan Taliban in recent months over accusations that militants are using Afghan soil to launch attacks on Pakistan, a charge the Taliban deny.

With just a week before Donald Trump re-enters the White House, Ukraine is bracing for some tough choices in the coming months. Its troops are on the backfoot against Russia along several parts of the long frontline, it is short of experienced soldiers and doubtful that military aid will continue to arrive at anything like the current rate.

In Kyiv, the government waits and watches the signals from Moscow and Washington and reiterates almost daily its desire for a “just peace.” Any thought of recovering the territory seized by Russia is on indefinite hold.

Despite taking heavy losses, Russian forces continue to push forward remorselessly in Donetsk region, one of four that Moscow has illegally annexed and is seeking to fully occupy. Their daily gains are measured in fields and streets as they creep towards the industrial belt of the region.

According to open source analysts WarMapper, Russia is occupying just over 18% of Ukraine – including Crimea and the areas of Donetsk and Luhansk that it had taken before 2022. Russian forces had taken some 150 square miles (400 square kilometers) in December.

Ukrainian units are vastly outnumbered in the east. One commander said this week that small groups of Russian infantry were conducting assaults from multiple directions at once, making it difficult for Ukrainian forces to concentrate fire.

“While the correlation of forces with respect to tactical fires, drones, and long-range strike appears to not be favoring either side to a significant extent, manpower remains the key differentiator between Russia and Ukraine,” says Mick Ryan, who writes the blog Futura Doctrina.

Russian units are now 3 miles (5 kilometers) from the hub of Pokrovsk and have taken control of Kurakhove and part of the town of Toretsk, according to geolocated video.

The commander of one Ukrainian battalion near Pokrovsk said Russian forces there had intensified shelling and glide-bomb strikes.

Military spokesman Viktor Tregubov told Ukrainian television that fighting continued around Kurakhove and troops were holding out at the power plant, “so we cannot say that Russian troops have taken the town completely. But, of course, most of the town has been reduced to rubble.”

The Russian “model of simple attrition is unchanged. The enemy inevitably wears down before the Russian steamroller wears down,” as analysts Keith D. Dickson and Yurij Holowinsky put it.

The goal for Kyiv is to defend what it still holds. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said at a meeting with allies – the Ukraine Defense Contact Group – in Germany last week that Ukraine’s priorities this year would be stabilizing the front line and strengthening its defense capabilities.

Contact Group members have committed more than $126 billion in security assistance to Ukraine over the past three years. Partners pledged further aid in Germany this week, including 30,000 drones over the next year and more air defense systems.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Friday that the coalition “must continue to stand foursquare with Ukraine — and to strengthen Ukraine’s hand for the negotiations that will someday bring Putin’s monstrous war to a close.”

It’s the “someday” that is the burning question. Austin said of the incoming Trump administration: “I won’t speculate on which direction they would go in.”

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius even suggested the incoming US administration might discontinue the Contact Group meetings, saying that if so “it will need to continue in another form.”

Negotiations on ending the conflict seem unlikely at present.

“The reason is simple. Moscow is not ready for any compromises. It plays for victory, not a draw,” says Arkady Moshes, writing in 19FortyFive.

“Success can be achieved on the battlefield or at the negotiating table, but it must be unquestionable. In Putin’s view, Ukraine needs to be defeated, and the West has to admit Ukraine’s – and its own – defeat publicly,” Moshes adds.

Potential peace talks

Trump’s Ukraine envoy, former US general Keith Kellogg, said last week that he hoped to be able to come up with a solid and sustainable solution to the conflict within 100 days. Trump himself had said on the campaign trail that he would get the fighting stopped within 24 hours of taking office, but when asked more recently how soon he could end the conflict said: “I hope to have six months. No, I would think, I hope long before six months.”

How the Kremlin’s unchanged goals square with the incoming Trump administration’s plans is unclear.

Ryan, the Futura Doctrina blogger, believes Putin “is likely to ensure that no matter what, the 100-day objective fails. He has no compelling reason to come to the table right now, thinking he has the momentum in this war.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has given little indication of the parameters that would be acceptable to Ukraine. He said Friday: “We will undoubtedly stand firm and achieve a lasting peace for our people and our country.”

His priority is to make Ukraine’s case to Trump directly. Foreign Ministry spokesman Heorhii Tykhyi on the same day said Ukraine was preparing for talks at “the highest levels.”

“Our stance is clear: everyone in Ukraine wants to end the war on terms that are fair to Ukraine.”

At the heart of any settlement for Kyiv would be short-term guarantees that a ceasefire could be monitored and longer-term guarantees for Ukraine that would deter Putin from using a ceasefire to re-group and renew hostilities.

That must include “significant investment in airpower, ballistic missile defense, a fully equipped, NATO standard heavy division,” say Dickson and Holowinsky. Meanwhile, they add: “Zelensky must take a strategic long view understanding that the lost territories in reality represent a gangrenous limb that must be cut off to save the healthy body.”

At an absolute minimum Moscow will demand that Ukraine cedes the territory it has lost and abandon its drive to join NATO, which Trump believes was a provocation to Russia.

Instead, Kyiv would have to negotiate other guarantees, as Zelensky said in an interview on Italian television this past week, that would “prevent Russia from returning with aggression.”

But the Kremlin is likely to demand much more.

Kyiv is “expected to accept extensive limitations on the size of its armed forces and on the kinds of weapons systems it is allowed to possess. These proposals are not a recipe for a sustainable settlement,” according to the Atlantic Council’s Serhii Kuzan.

Moscow has shown no sign of abandoning its maximalist demand for the totality of all four regions it claims to have annexed. “This would mean handing over large amounts of unoccupied Ukrainian territory including the city of Zaporizhzhia with a population of around three quarters of a million people,” notes Kuzan.

For now, both the White House and many commentators see no desire by either side to begin talks. “There is no expectation now that either side is ready for negotiations,” US National Security spokesman John Kirby said in recent days.

While both the Kremlin and Trump have expressed readiness for a summit, premature efforts to advance negotiations on the Ukraine conflict could backfire, according to Russian commentator Giorgy Bovt.

“If the meeting is held prematurely, when the conditions for peace are not yet ripe, it will do more harm than good. It could lead to an even greater escalation. At the same time, both warring sides are still betting on the continuation of hostilities, not considering their forces exhausted,” he wrote on Telegram.

An Austrian woman has been kidnapped by gunmen in Niger’s Agadez city, local residents and the Austrian foreign ministry said on Sunday, the first time a European citizen is known to have been kidnapped in the conflict-hit West African nation since a military junta took power in 2023.

The ministry said Austria’s embassy in Algeria, which is also responsible for Niger, had been informed of the kidnap of an Austrian woman in Agadez and was in contact with regional authorities on the ground.

Residents and local media identified the victim as Eva Gretzmacher and reported she is an aid worker who has lived in Agadez – hundreds of kilometers (miles) away from the capital city of Niamey – for more than 20 years.

“(She) is well known for her social commitment (and) created a skills center in 2010 that initiated various projects, notably in the fields of education, women’s empowerment, ecology, culture and art,” the local Air Info Agadez reported.

Gretzmacher also supported education programs through her development work and provided assistance to local non-government organizations in various sectors, local media said.

No group claimed responsibility for her abduction and authorities in Niger did not immediately comment on the incident.

Niger has for many years battled a jihadi insurgency linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State group, a security crisis that analysts say has worsened since the military toppled the country’s government in July 2023.

Despite their promise to restore peace in hot spots, the junta’s capacity to improve Niger’s security has increasingly been questioned amid increasing attacks.

Niger was seen as one of the last democratic countries in Africa’s Sahel region that Western nations could partner with to beat back the jihadi insurgency in the vast expanse below the Sahara Desert.

The country has severed decades-long military ties with the West and turned to Russia as a new security partner.