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The 2024 manganese market was impacted by several factors including growing demand for battery applications, geopolitical risks, production disruptions and strategic investments.

Positive demand from the electric vehicle sector offered support as automakers increasingly turned to manganese-rich lithium-ion chemistries like lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP) to cut costs and reduce reliance on nickel and cobalt.

Meanwhile, supply chain vulnerabilities emerged due to political instability in major producing regions and heightened environmental scrutiny. In response, nations such as the US and Australia accelerated investments in refining facilities to reduce dependence on China and secure their EV battery supply chains.

Later in the year oversupply stemming from weaker than expected Chinese steel demand muted price growth in the space.

“Manganese sulphate prices turned bearish in Q4 … with slow spot buying in China and the effects of weather-related mine supply disruptions in Australia,” a Fastmarkets report from December reads.

Despite these challenges, the metals pricing firm foresees a recovery in the manganese market in the years ahead.

“We expect demand to grow from now and into the 2030s, driven in part by new chemistries like LMFP,” the firm notes. In the short to mid-term, China’s supply base looks set to fulfil global needs of high purity manganese, though there is likely to be a long-term need for a greater high purity manganese capacity.”

2024 trends: Supply disruption

Recounting the most impactful trends in the 2024 manganese market Clare Hanna, senior steel analyst at CRU pointed to several factors.

“The key drivers in 2024 were the outage at South32’s (ASX:S32,OTC Pink:SHTLF)Groote Eylandt mine, the surge in alternative supplies and the weak state of Chinese demand,” she said.

“This led prices to first rise very sharply and then plummet as the market oversupply became apparent.”

South32 — the world’s largest manganese producer — saw operations suspended at its Australia-based Groote Eylandt mine in March due to a tropical cyclone. A phased return to mining began in June 2024, however the severity of flooding due to the cyclone has impacted a wharf and the company’s ability to export.

In a statement, South32 said it expects exports to resume in Q3 2025.

Some of this reduced 2024 output was offset by purchase declines in China. As Hanna explained, Chinese demand was weak due to lower demand for steel rebar which was driven by weakness of the Chinese real estate sector.

Prices for manganese ore could face headwinds in the year ahead as South32 continues to ramp up Groote Eylandt.

“The return of South32 to the market and the increase in high-grade supply could be a challenge, given the Chinese real estate market is not expected to improve significantly. Steel demand and production in other markets is forecast to improve,” said Hanna.

Key demand drivers for 2025

Prized for their high energy density, automakers are increasingly turning to manganese-based batteries for their cost-effectiveness and reduced reliance on expensive metals like nickel and cobalt.

Although, as Hanna pointed out, the majority of manganese demand is still attributed to the steel sector.

“There is a lot of noise in the market about manganese usage in EV batteries, driven in part by companies looking for finance, and also because downstream, the processing of manganese ore for battery grade manganese products is heavily concentrated in China at the moment,’ she said. “However, it is worth recognising that in terms of manganese ore demand, the share that is going into EV supply chains is very small.”

The senior analyst went on to note that those dynamics are likely to shift in the coming years.

“While [EV sector] volume is growing and the demand from the steel sector is likely to decline over time, demand from steel supply chains will remain the dominant source of manganese ore demand, and therefore the biggest demand side influence on manganese ore prices,” said Hanna.

She went on to explain why the smaller EV market need has dominated the manganese narrative.

“When looking for investment, companies like to align their projects with growing market sectors, so when companies are talking about new mine investments, they often reference the EV supply chain, even if in practice, most of the ore will likely go to ferroalloy producers for consumption in steel production.”

Supply diversification

Like so many of the battery metals, the manganese supply chain is dominated by China, a factor many western nations are trying to grapple with. In an effort to bolster supply outside of China significant investments were made in 2024.

“What we are seeing is a number of projects aimed to produce High Purity Manganese Sulphate (HPMSM) outside of China to reduce OEM EV battery supply chain risk or take advantage of the benefits of the Inflation Reduction Act. Some of these are aligned with new or existing upstream mines,” said Hanna.

Despite the plan looking good on paper, the CRU steel specialist pointed out the challenges with building HPMSM supply independent of China.

“While some have pilot plants (some very small), operational plants are still at minimum, a couple of years off,” Hanna said.

She continued: “Production of HPMSM is a chemical process so existing producers of manganese metal or other manganese chemicals would be able to move into this product area more easily than ferroalloy producers, although there are still a lot of technical challenges. There are no ferroalloy producers, outside of China, moving to produce HPMSM.”

Some of those projects in the pipeline include the Manganese Metal Company’s HPMSM Metal to Crystal project in South Africa. Described as a more sustainable process, the Metal to Crystal production method will start with a 5,000 metric ton per annum plant in 2028, followed by a ~30,000 metric ton per annum plant, targeted beyond 2030.

Hanna also referenced South32’s US-based Hermosa project which received a US$20 million grant from the US Department of Defense in May 2024. The monies have been earmarked for the acceleration of domestic production of battery grade manganese.

Manganese processing plants have also attracted US government funding.

In September, Element 25 (ASX:E25:OTCQX:ELMT) secured a US$166 million grant from the US Department of Energy (DoE) under the Battery Materials Processing Grant Program.

The funding infusion will support the construction of E25’s HPMSM facility in Louisiana. The grant is in addition to US$115 million in funding already secured from offtake partners General Motors (NYSE:GM) and Stellantis (NYSE:STLA).

The feedstock for the Louisiana plant will originate from Element 25’s Butcherbird mine in Australia. In November, the company released a new resource estimate for the planned expansion at Butcherbird.

According to the company, the new estimate registers a 142 percent increase in measured and indicated resources, which now total 130 million tonnes at 10.23 percent manganese. Additionally, the site hosts a total resource of 274 million tonnes at 10 percent manganese.

Other notable companies Hanna referenced include: Euro Manganese (TSXV:EMN,OTCQB:EUMNF), which is developing a project in Czech Republic using manganese from old mine tailings, and also looking at plans for a plant in Quebec, Canada.

“Firebird Metals (ASX:FRB,OTC Pink:FRBMF) (in) Australia, has adopted an alternative approach,” she said. “They are partnering with a Chinese group to build an HPMSM plant in China, which could eventually be supplied with ore from an Australian mine.”

Trends to watch

While these supply chain diversification efforts aim to secure and steady output, Hanna warned of some trends to watch in 2025. Top of mind is South32’s Groote Eylandt mine and its ability to restart shipments this year.

In South Africa, she highlighted national rail operator Transnet’s plans for expansion.

“Transnet’s plans for the new port and rail infrastructure at Coega in South Africa are still some way off,” said Hanna. “The company’s performance on the existing rail network and ability to open up the routes beyond traditional miners will influence how much ore needs to be moved via the higher cost rail route.”

plans remain distant, while inefficiencies in the existing rail network could raise transport costs. Gabon’s production expansion in Moanda faces delays due to weak demand, compounded by past disruptions from railway landslides. In Ukraine, war-related damage to production and demand persists, with recovery dependent on potential ceasefire agreements.

Manganese producer Eramet (EPA:ERA), has also faced challenges to its production expansion plans at the Moanda project in Gabon.

“These [plans] were slowed in Q4 by weak demand,” she said. “Work continues on improvements to the Trans Gabon Railway. Landslides and derailments in the past have disrupted supply causing ore price volatility.”

A resolution to the war in Ukraine could also serve as a catalyst to the 2025 supply and demand story.

“Historically Ukraine was a significant producer and consumer of manganese alloys. Both have been slowed by the war. In the event of a ceasefire this year, supply is likely to return faster than demand as the large Mauripol steel plant was destroyed during the Russian invasion,” she added.

According to Hanna, key areas to watch as the year progresses are trade actions and carbon taxes. These include the US investigation into ferrosilicon imports from several countries, paired with the incoming Trump administration may signal broader tariffs.

Elsewhere, the EU’s probe into manganese alloys and ferrosilicon may raise regional prices

“The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism is due to come in at the beginning of 2026. Ferromanganese is covered, silicomanganese is not,’ said Hanna. “There is a lot of uncertainty about the impact of this.”

Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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Boab Metals (ASX:BML) is a base and precious metals explorer and developer progressing toward a final investment decision (FID) on its Sorby Hills project, a world-class lead-silver deposit. Boab Metals is poised to capitalize on the rising demand for lead and silver, delivering value to shareholders and supporting the global transition to sustainable energy systems.

The Sorby Hills project is strategically located 150 km from Wyndham Port providing access to excellent infrastructure, and green power from the Ord River hydroelectric plant. Boab Metals combines technical expertise, sustainable practices, and robust financial planning to advance the Sorby Hills project, which is slated to produce high-grade lead-silver concentrate through conventional open-pit mining.

Location map of Boab Metals

Boab Metals owns 75 percent of the Sorby Hills Project, with the remaining 25 percent held by Henan Yuguang Gold & Lead Co., China’s largest lead smelting and silver producer. The project boasts a substantial, high-quality resource base of 47.3 million ton resource base at 4.3 percent lead equivalent (123 g/t silver equivalent), including 53 million ounces of contained silver, all with significant exploration upside.

Company Highlights

  • Boab Metals is an ASX-listed base and precious metals explorer and developer with a flagship project poised for near-term production.
  • The Sorby Hills project, Boab’s flagship asset, boasts a high-quality 47.3 Mt resource at 4.3 percent lead equivalent (123 g/t silver equivalent), including 53 Moz contained silver, and is in Western Australia, 50 km northeast of Kununurra.
  • Strong economics underpin the project with an NPV (8 percent) of AU$411 million and an IRR of 37 percent, as confirmed by the completed FEED study. Life-of-mine operating cash flow of AU$1.1 billion with an average annual EBITDA of AU$126 million. Competitive C1 cash cost of US$0.36/lb payable lead (after considering silver credits).
  • Access to green hydroelectric power and existing environmental approvals enhance the project’s sustainability credentials and support reduced operational costs.
  • Committed to community engagement, Boab Metals fosters strong relationships with local stakeholders and supports regional development initiatives.
  • Expert leadership with a proven track record in exploration and development of mining assets

This Boab Metals profile is part of a paid investor education campaign.*

Click here to connect with Boab Metals (ASX:BML) to receive an Investor Presentation

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Australia has vowed it will take the “strongest action possible” if Russia has harmed one of its nationals captured fighting for Ukraine, after reports emerged the prisoner of war may have been killed.

Oscar Jenkins was captured by Russian forces last month, after which a video surfaced of him being questioned while dressed in a military uniform.

Speaking at a press conference on Wednesday, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said his government has been “seeking urgent clarification” on the situation, adding it is “gravely concerned.”

“We have called in the Russian ambassador already,” he said.

“We will await the facts to come out. But if there has been any harm caused to Oscar Jenkins, that is absolutely reprehensible. And the Australian government will take the strongest action possible.”

He declined to elaborate on what actions Canberra might take.

Speaking in a mix of English, Ukrainian and Russian, he identifies himself as “a soldier” and says he is a teacher in China and a student in Australia.

Jenkins is thought to have joined an international brigade among the Ukrainian ranks, which have recruited many foreign fighters since the war began in February 2022. The Australian government advises its citizens against traveling to Ukraine to fight, but some have nonetheless chosen to volunteer with international brigades.

At least seven Australians are believed to have died fighting in Ukraine, according to ABC, but none was known to have died while being held captive.

Prisoner of war

Originally from Melbourne, Jenkins has worked as a university lecturer in the Chinese city of Tianjin since 2017, according to a LinkedIn profile under his name.

If he was killed, he would be the first Australian to have died while being held as a prisoner of war in more than half a century. The last person to have died under such circumstances was H. W. Madden, who was captured during the Korean War in the 1950s, according to the Australian War Memorial.

Australia has repeatedly condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and has given Kyiv close to $1 billion in assistance since 2022, while its military has provided training for Ukraine’s armed forces.

Australia’s Foreign Minister Penny Wong was in Kyiv last month to announce new assistance packages, and the reopening of Canberra’s embassy in the Ukrainian capital.

During an interview with ABC on Wednesday, Wong said her department has been “working very hard” to ascertain the facts surrounding Jenkins’ safety.

“Russia is obliged to treat all prisoners of war in accordance with international humanitarian law,” Wong said. “I want to be clear all options are on the table.”

Multiple reports have emerged throughout the course of Russian troops executing prisoners of war which is a war crime under international law.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

For three days, Wang Xing lived in fear. His head had been shaved. He couldn’t sleep and was in a strange place where his captors forced him to type – the first phase of training for an unwanted role.

The 31-year-old Chinese actor had flown to Bangkok for what he expected to be a movie casting call. Instead, he was picked up at the airport and driven to a scam center in Myanmar’s Myawaddy, a notorious cyber-fraud hub across the border from Thailand.

Wang is among hundreds of thousands of people who have been trafficked into scam compounds – many run by Chinese crime syndicates – that have proliferated in civil war-torn Myanmar and other parts of Southeast Asia in recent years. Often lured by the promise of well-paying jobs or other enticing opportunities, victims are held against their will and forced to carry out online fraud schemes in heavily guarded compounds, where former detainees say beatings and torture are common.

But Wang considers himself one of the lucky few. On January 7, just days after he was reported missing in the Thai border town of Mae Sot, Thai police said they located him in Myawaddy and brought him back to Thailand, without revealing the details of the operation.

The actor’s subsequent safe return to China has spurred hundreds of Chinese families to call on their government to help find and free their loved ones, who they believe are still trapped in the scam centers. Some have been missing for months or even years.

Wang’s ordeal has also put pressure on Thailand. Chinese tourists are expressing their fears on social media about traveling to the Southeast Asian nation – with some canceling their trips – frustrating Thailand’s efforts to rebuild its pandemic-hit tourism sector, which counts China as its largest and most critical market.

Thai authorities have been in damage control, attempting to reassure worried Chinese tourists that the country is safe.

Upon Wang’s return to Thailand, Thai police officials stood by the actor as he addressed Thai media in English. After asking Wang to thank the Thai government on camera, the official said, “You think Thailand is safe for you, right? Can you speak in Chinese to tell people?”

“Thailand is quite safe, so there’s no need to worry,” Wang replied. “If I have the chance in the future, I will definitely come back here again.”

‘Glimmer of hope’

Shortly after Wang’s rescue, a joint petition from the families of 174 Chinese nationals missing in Myanmar trended on Chinese social media, pleading the government to do more to help bring them home.

“We have no intention of inciting any confrontation; we simply hope to genuinely draw the government’s attention and accelerate efforts to intensify and expedite crackdowns,” the petition said.

A spreadsheet was shared online for family members to fill in details of their loved ones. It has grown from the initial 174 to include more than 1,200 victims.

Among the cases listed is Zhang Huizhen, a 24-year-old fresh graduate who went missing in October on a trip to Thailand and Cambodia. Before she vanished, she shared her location with a friend showing she was near Mae Sot. She also texted her mother, saying she had been busy lately and might not be able to reply to messages promptly, her family said.

Zhang’s family reported her missing to police in their home province of Zhejiang and reached out to the Chinese embassy in Thailand for help, but they have not received any news about her for more than 70 days.

In a video filmed aboard a police plane heading back to Bangkok, Wang said he’d been on a shoot in Thailand in 2018 and didn’t fret over this one too much. It wasn’t until he was pushed into a car by armed men that he began to realize he may have been driven across the border to Myanmar.

Wang said at least 50 people were held in the same building as him. “There were more in another building, and people came from different countries,” he said.

Alarmed by Wang’s disappearance, his girlfriend shared a desperate plea for help online, which racked up hundreds of millions of views and made headlines in state media.

After his release, many Chinese social media users questioned what happened to the dozens of other people also trapped in the compound. “You can’t just save him because he’s famous, right?” said a top comment.

Li Jie, a cousin of 21-year-old Liu Junjie who disappeared in Myawaddy on January 5, said she hoped authorities in China and Thailand would work together to save more victims. “I feel that the power of public opinion is strong, so it gives me hope,” she said.

China has worked with authorities in Myanmar to crack down on scam centers in northern Shan state, near the Chinese border. In 2023, as ethnic rebel groups gained ground against Myanmar’s ruling junta, powerful warlord families – backed by the military to rule the region and oversee these fraud operations – were apprehended and handed to Chinese police.

Chinese authorities say large-scale scam compounds in northern Myanmar have been “completely eradicated,” with more than 53,000 Chinese “suspects” – including trafficked victims – sent back to China.

But many scam centers have moved further south in Myanmar, including to Myawaddy, according to NGOs and experts who have long tracked these criminal operations.

The Civil Society Network for Victim Assistance in Human Trafficking, an NGO based in Thailand, estimates that about 6,000 victims from 21 countries are held under duress at the scam compounds in Myawaddy, including about 3,900 Chinese nationals.

The deluge of headlines has also put pressure on the Hong Kong government to bring home a dozen city residents stranded in the scam canters.

Andy Yu, a former local councilor, who has been advocating for the families since last summer, said the government hadn’t made much progress – until Wang’s rescue.

Hong Kong dispatched a task force to Thailand this week to follow up on their cases. Officials said they had received “an eager response” from the Thai government but no timeline had been set for their rescue.

Travel scares

The publicity around Wang’s case couldn’t have come at a worse time for Thai tourist operators, who had been expecting a surge of arrivals during the Lunar New Year holiday, China’s peak travel season.

But there are signs Chinese tourists are looking elsewhere.

Over the weekend, flight cancellations from China to Thailand surged 150%, Chinese state media reported, citing data from travel analytics firm ForwardKeys. And on Xiaohongshu, an Instagram-like Chinese app that is often used for travel advice, users shared tips on how to cancel flights and hotels in Thailand with minimal costs.

A tour operator in southern Guangdong province said he had seen a significant drop in bookings to Thailand following the recent headlines, with reservations for the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday at just 40% of the total this time last year.

Hong Kong pop star Eason Chan canceled his upcoming concert in Bangkok, citing safety concerns for fans. Zhao Benshan, a Chinese comedy titan, also axed his February show in the Thai capital over “safety issues.”

Safety concerns about traveling to Thailand have gained traction in China before, including in early 2023, after the country reopened its borders from the pandemic. Later in the year, “No More Bets,” a Chinese thriller set in an unnamed Southeast Asian country where people are lured to work in scam factories, became a box office hit.

For nearly a decade before the pandemic, China was Thailand’s largest source of foreign tourists. But it saw a sharp drop in Chinese tourists in 2020 when China shut its borders and restricted “non-essential” overseas travel.

Last March, in an effort to boost tourism, the two countries waived visa requirements for each other’s citizens. China reclaimed its position as the top source of visitors in Thailand last year, though the number of Chinese arrivals only recovered to about 60% of pre-pandemic levels.

The latest safety fears sparked by Wang’s abduction could pose a challenge to Thailand’s efforts to further boost that number.

Sisdivachr Cheewarattanaporn, president of the Association of Thai Travel Agents, acknowledged that these concerns would undoubtedly affect the Chinese tourism market, particularly among tour groups. However, he said the extent of the impact remains uncertain.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Stock Trend Capital Inc. (CSE: PUMP) (FSE: P0G) (PTC Pink: STOCF) (the ‘Company’ or ‘Stock Trend’) announces that the Company has entered into a loan agreement (the ‘Loan Agreement’) dated January 7, 2025, with 1001070426 Ontario Inc. dba eGOD Digital Labs (‘eGod’ or ‘the ‘Borrower’), whereby the Company has agreed to provide the Borrower with a loan in the amount of $1,000,000 (the ‘Loan’). The Loan is to support the Borrower’s strategic initiatives and business operations.

The Loan: (i) accrues interest on the loan amount at a rate equal to 10% per annum; (ii) matures on June 30, 2026 (the ‘Maturity Date’); and (iii) is secured by first-priority security interest on the personal property of the Borrower, pursuant to a general security agreement.

In connection with the Loan, the Borrower agreed to issue to the Company an anti-dilution warrant (the ‘Anti-Dilution Warrant’), which entitles the Company to exercise the warrant to 25% of the Borrower for nominal consideration. The Borrower also agreed to pay Stock Trend a royalty in the amount of 7% of the revenue generated by the Borrower until a total amount of royalty of $500,000 has been paid to the Company (the ‘Royalty’). In addition, the Company has the right to elect to convert all or part of the Loan, together with any accrued interest and including the full Royalty entitlement, into fully-paid and non-assessable common shares of eGod, which if exercised by the Company may result in the Company owning more than 51% of the Borrower, inclusive of an exercise of the Anti-Dilution Warrant.

We are excited to provide this financial support to eGod Digital Labs and look forward to fostering the growth and success of their operations,’ said Anthony Durkacz, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of Stock Trend Capital, ‘This agreement underscores our commitment to investing in high-potential opportunities while ensuring value for our shareholders through robust protections like anti-dilution warrants and royalty payments.’

About eGOD Digital Labs

eGOD Digital Labs is focused on becoming a leader in the Dogecoin and Litecoin mining space. eGOD is dedicated to building sustainable, efficient, and scalable solutions that strengthen these networks. By leveraging advanced mining systems, eGOD aims to support the long-term growth and potential of Dogecoin and Litecoin. For additional information please visit www.egoddigital.com.

About Stock Trend

Stock Trend Capital Inc. is an investment issuer primarily focused on the AI sector, crypto sector, and the Canadian cannabis industry. The issuer intends to focus on investing in private and public entities with strong intellectual property, exceptional management and high growth potential that may be strategically positioned in the market.

On behalf of the Board of Directors of
STOCK TREND CAPITAL INC.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION, PLEASE CONTACT:
Anthony Durkacz
CEO, Director
Telephone: (416) 720-4360
Email: anthony@stocktrend.com

Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements

This news release contains ‘forward-looking statements’ within the meaning of applicable securities laws. Forward-looking statements are based on the opinions, assumptions, factors and estimates of management considered reasonable at the date the statements are made. The opinions, assumptions, factors and estimates which may prove to be incorrect.

Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance, or achievements of the Company to differ materially from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking information. Such risks and other factors include, among others: general economic, market, or business conditions; uninsured risks; regulatory changes; and other risks detailed herein and from time to time in the filings made by the Company with securities regulators. Although the Company has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual actions, events, or results to differ from those described in forward-looking statements, there may be other factors that cause such actions, events, or results to differ materially from those anticipated. There can be no assurance that forward-looking statements will prove to be accurate and accordingly readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Forward-looking information in this news release may include statements about the completion of the Loan, the terms of the Loan, the use of proceeds from the Loan, and statements regarding management’s expectations on the Company’s future performance among other statements.

The statements in this press release are made as of the date of this release. Neither the CSE nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the CSE) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.

Source

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President Biden on Tuesday signed proclamations to establish the Chuckwalla National Monument and the Sáttítla Highlands National Monument, which will protect hundreds of thousands of acres of land in California, during his last week in office. 

The event was delayed by a week due to the destructive wildfires raging in Southern California, and Biden revealed that he had wanted to do the ceremony in the state, but it had to be moved to the White House. 

‘We’ve been carrying out the most aggressive climate agenda ever in the history of the world,’ the president said in the East Room of the White House, before discussing the national monuments. ‘Our natural wonders are the heart and soul of our nation.’ 

He said in his second week as president he signed an executive order ‘establishing the first ever conservation goal to protect 30% of all our lands and waters everywhere in America by 2030 … I call this national campaign America the Beautiful … And over the last four years, we’ve delivered … putting America on track to meet that bold goal, restoring it, creating new national monuments, conserving hundreds of millions of acres of land and waters all across America, from New England to Minnesota, Texas to Colorado, Arizona, Alaska.’ 

He added, ‘Over the past four years, I’m proud to have kept my commitment to protect more land and water than any president in American history.’ 

The Chuckwalla National Monument will protect more than 600,000 acres of public land in the California desert near Joshua Tree National Park and the Colorado River, according to the National Parks Conservation Association. 

The Sáttítla Highlands National Monument will protect more than 224,000 acres of land in Northern California in the Modoc, Shasta-Trinity, and Klamath national forests and ‘provides protection to tribal ancestral homelands, historic and scientific treasures, rare flora and fauna, and the headwaters of vital sources of water,’ according to the U.S. Forest Service.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

Expect a traffic jam in the Senate soon as the race is on to confirm President-elect Trump’s cabinet nominees.

In short, nothing can happen until President-elect Trump takes office on Jan. 20.

Yes, there will be plenty of Trump loyalists attending various inaugural balls around town.

But once the inauguration festivities conclude at the Capitol, the Senate will get down to business. A handful of committees are already angling to schedule ‘markups’ to potentially discharge or send various nominations to the floor. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee has already teed up a meeting for 3:15 pm et on January 20 for the nomination of Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) to be Secretary of State. And if the custom holds, the Senate will confirm at least a few of Mr. Trump’s nominees just hours after he takes the oath of office.

Let history be our guide:

The Senate confirmed Trump’s Defense Secretary James Mattis and Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly on the evening of January 20, 2017. The next confirmation didn’t come until January 31, 2017. That was Elaine Chao, wife of former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), to be Transportation Secretary.

In 2021, the Senate confirmed one of President Biden’s nominees shortly after he was sworn-in. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines was the first Biden nominee confirmed – on the night of January 20, 2021. The first, full cabinet-level vote did not come until January 22, when the Senate confirmed Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.

So, while everyone is trying to squeeze into their tux on Monday night, look for the Senate to potentially vote on a nominee or two on the evening of January 20th.

Fox is told that the most likely candidates might include Rubio – since he is a known quantity in the Senate and has bipartisan support. Another possibility would be CIA Director nominee John Ratcliffe. The Senate previously confirmed Ratcliffe as the Director of National Intelligence during the first Trump Administration. He is also a known entity in the halls of Congress and served as a Republican congressman from Texas. His hearing is on for tomorrow.

Frankly, the ambitious timetable of approving several of the nominees quickly could be challenging.

The Senate Energy Committee had to postpone Tuesday’s confirmation hearing for Interior Secretary Doug Burgum from Tuesday until Thursday due to delays over paperwork. Veterans Affairs Secretary nominee Doug Collins is not controversial. He is a former GOP congressman from Georgia. But his confirmation hearing for Tuesday was pushed back until next week. Collins may have been one figure who could have been confirmed quickly.

Attorney General nominee Pam Bondi is also one who could secure relatively speedy confirmation. Her hearing is Wednesday and Thursday. So maybe next week for her? Unclear.

But let’s examine the track record of the Senate confirming President Biden’s nominees and place it against expectations for the new Trump Administration.

After Lloyd Austin, the Senate confirmed Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on January 25, 2021, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken on January 26. Most cabinet officials weren’t confirmed until February or March. The Senate did not confirm Interior Secretary Deb Haaland until March 15, 2021, Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra until March 18, 2021, and Labor Secretary Marty Walsh until March 22, 2021.

You get the idea.

Every nominee must go through a hearing. Committees have different rules about how they discharge a nomination to the floor. So that could consume some time as well. Some nominees could be bottled up in committee, depending on opposition or attendance problems. Then there may be debate on the floor.

If Democrats filibuster a nominee, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) may need to tee up a procedural gambit to break filibusters. The process of just initiating a procedural vote to break a filibuster consumes parts of three days alone. If a nominee’s opponents still don’t relent, it’s possible that senators could drag out debate on a nominee for day or two – even though the Senate has broken a filibuster.

In February 2017, Mike Pence became the first Vice President to break a tie to confirm a cabinet official. He did so to confirm former Education Secretary Betsy DeVos.

In other words, floor time is at a premium. There are various parliamentary ‘meridians’ for when the Senate can take certain procedural votes to advance a nominee. That’s why the Senate took a procedural vote at 7 am on the DeVos nomination in February 2017. The Senate also confirmed then Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price around 2 am one morning.

And we haven’t even gotten to other nominations which are important to the Administration – such as Pete Hoekstra to be Ambassador to Canada or Mike Huckabee to serve as Ambassador to Israel. There are more than 800 positions which require Senate confirmation.

To accelerate things, the Senate could confirm some swaths of non-controversial nominees ‘en bloc.’ That means the Senate clears the nominees on both sides to make sure there are no objections. If there are none, the Senate compiles a list and confirms a group of nominees together in one fell swoop.

But this is a long and tedious process. Confirming various positions in the Trump administration is going to take months. It consumes hours of floor time. That’s the most precious commodity in the Senate. Keep in mind that the push to confirm Trump nominees comes as the Senate is trying to work out a time agreement and amendments to pass the Laken Riley Act and a bill to sanction the International Criminal Court over its arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

This is a monster process. And it will likely consume some early mornings, very late nights and even some weekend sessions before this is settled.

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The South African government has launched a rescue operation at an abandoned gold mine in the country’s North West province, where at least 109 men have died, a group representing the miners said, after local authorities cut off vital supplies in a dramatic bid to crack down on the country’s illegal mining trade.

As of Tuesday evening, at least 51 bodies and 66 survivors had been pulled out of the Stilfontein mine, according to South African police, with many more feared trapped inside.

While estimates varied on how many men were in the mine, Meshack Mbangula, head of the Mining Affected Communities United in Action (MACUA), had earlier estimated that 500 people were trapped underground.

The video, filmed by one of the miners last week, according to Mbangula, also shows shirtless, emaciated-looking men with protruding bones and ribs.

A man speaking in Zulu, pleads to be rescued in one scene. Another man says: “How many days must we live in a situation like this.”

“Please take us out. Please assist us to come out or if not, please give us food because [there are] people who are dead. We’ve got 109 people dead and we need plastic to wrap them because the smell is too much, we can’t stand the smell,” the miners said in the letter.

Community-led groups like MACUA say they have led the effort to help the trapped miners for months, he said, as police cut off food and vital supplies to the men in November in an attempt to force them out and close the mine.

The police’s move – a self-described crackdown on the illegal mining industry – has drawn criticism from community groups and South Africa’s Federation of Trade Unions (SAFTU), who in November called it “vindictive,” and one that may “end in a tragedy.”

Police spokesperson Athlenda Mathe told reporters in November that food and water supplies to those underground had been halted. “We are stopping and preventing food and water to go down there as a way of forcing these illegal miners to resurface because what they are doing is criminality,” she said.

Miners would face arrest upon resurfacing, according to police.

In November, a South African court ordered police to halt its standoff, provide food to the trapped miners and allow rescue teams to access the mine. The nation’s Human Rights Commission (SAHRC) also said it was investigating the police service for halting vital supplies to the miners.

On Sunday, facing intensifying public pressure and reports that many of the miners had already died, the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy said it had begun plans to conduct a rescue operation at the abandoned shaft. The mineral resources department said “the decision to deploy rescue services was made independently” and not mandated by a court.

South Africa harbors up to 100,000 artisanal miners, known locally as “zama zamas” with most of the minerals derived from artisanal mining “sold to the black market, and international illicit mineral traders,” according to SAFTU.

The nation also loses more than $1 billion to illegal mining annually, with the black market trade in gold linked to violent turf wars, according to a parliamentary brief.

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Russia’s military on Tuesday said it would retaliate against Ukraine after Kyiv attacked Russian regions by firing six US-made ATACMS ballistic missiles, six UK-made Storm Shadow cruise missiles and launching one of the biggest drone attacks to date.

After Ukraine first launched ATACMS and British Storm Shadow missiles into Russia last year, Moscow responded on Nov. 21 by launching a new intermediate-range hypersonic ballistic missile known as “Oreshnik”, or Hazel Tree, at Ukraine.

Russia’s defence ministry said it had shot down all of the Western missiles fired by Ukraine at the Bryansk region, as well as 146 drones outside the war zone. It said two more Storm Shadows had been shot down over the Black Sea.

“The actions of the Kyiv regime, supported by its Western curators, will not go unanswered,” the defence ministry said.

The Ukrainian General Staff said it had struck as deep as 1,100 km (680 miles) inside Russia, targeting oil storage, refinery, chemical and ammunition plants in the Bryansk, Saratov, Tula and Tatarstan regions.

Kyiv did not say exactly how it struck the targets, but said that drone and missile forces were among the units involved in the attack.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said in November that the Ukraine war was escalating towards a global conflict after the United States and Britain allowed Ukraine for the first time to launch their missiles deep inside Russia.

President-elect Donald Trump has pushed for a ceasefire and negotiations to end the war quickly, leaving Washington’s long-term support for Ukraine in question.

Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine has left tens of thousands of dead, displaced millions and triggered the biggest crisis in relations between Moscow and the West since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Drone attack

The drone attack on Russia was one of the biggest to date.

Roman Busargin, governor of the Saratov region about 720 km (450 miles) southeast of Moscow, said the cities of Saratov and Engels, on opposite banks of the Volga River, had been subjected to a mass drone attack and there was damage to two industrial sites. Schools had shifted to remote learning, he said.

Ukraine attacked the same region last week and claimed to have struck an oil depot serving an airbase for Russian nuclear bomber planes, causing a huge fire that took five days to put out.

The Ukrainian General Staff said it had hit the Kristall Plant oil storage facility in Engels, part of an operation run by Ukrainian drone units and military intelligence.

The General Staff also said it had struck the Bryansk Chemical Plant, which it said produced ammunition for artillery, multiple launch rocket systems, aviation, engineering ammunition and components for cruise missiles.

The drone attack struck a munitions storage facility holding guided bombs and missiles at the Engels airbase in Russia’s Saratov region as well as other targets, a source in the Security Service of Ukraine said on Tuesday.

The General Staff said attacks on the Saratov Oil Refinery and the Kazanorgsintez plant triggered fires.

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